Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has reached a record high of 12 percent in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, reflecting a significant shift in the Australian political landscape. This surge comes amid a backdrop of heated debates around immigration, while the ruling Coalition continues to experience a decline in popularity, now facing its lowest primary support since polling began in April 2021.
The findings indicate that the Labor Party maintains a robust 55-45 lead over the Coalition in the two-party preferred vote, mirroring the margin observed during the May 3 election. During that election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a historic 94 seats in the House of Representatives, decisively defeating the opposition.
As the Coalition grapples with waning support, its primary vote has fallen to 27 percent, down from 29 percent the previous month. For Labor, the decline is less pronounced, dropping from 37 percent to 35 percent. Despite these shifts, both major parties have seen a decrease in support, allowing minor parties to gain traction.
One Nation’s rise in popularity is particularly noteworthy, marking the first time the party has entered double figures in this poll. The increase from 9 percent to 12 percent reflects growing discontent with the major parties, particularly regarding immigration policies. This trend aligns with comments from Resolve pollster Jim Reed, who noted that dissatisfaction with the major parties often drives voters to alternatives like One Nation.
The poll, conducted from September 9 to 13 with a margin of error of 2.3 percent, surveyed 1,800 people. Reed emphasized the impact of the immigration debate on One Nation’s surge, suggesting that voters dissatisfied with the major parties may be seeking different options.
The increase in support for minor parties and independents now stands at 38 percent, surpassing both Labor’s and the Coalition’s primary votes. Notably, the Greens saw a slight dip, falling from 12 percent to 11 percent, while support for independents rose to 9 percent.
As these political dynamics unfold, the Albanese government is preparing for a week of significant announcements regarding climate change policies, including the anticipated unveiling of Australia’s interim 2035 emissions reduction target. Following this, Albanese will travel to Papua New Guinea to participate in celebrations marking the nation’s 50 years of independence, before heading to the UN General Assembly next Saturday.
Despite the Coalition’s struggles, Sussan Ley, the Opposition Leader, continues to maintain a net positive rating for her performance. After the recent demotion of Jacinta Nampijinpa Price from the shadow ministry due to controversial remarks, Ley’s approval rating remains steady. In recent polling, 41 percent of respondents rated her performance as good or very good, while 32 percent rated it poorly.
Albanese’s performance ratings reflect a more mixed response, with 44 percent of voters rating him positively, while 45 percent deemed it poor. His net performance rating stands at -1 percent, indicating a slight decline. Ley’s preferred prime minister rating remains unchanged at 26 percent, with 35 percent of respondents undecided.
In light of the recent political shifts, Ley has announced a reshuffle of the Coalition’s frontbench, appointing Claire Chandler as the spokesperson on cybersecurity and science, and Simon Kennedy as shadow assistant minister for artificial intelligence and the digital economy. These changes aim to bolster the Coalition’s position as it navigates through challenging political waters.
The evolving political landscape in Australia, highlighted by the rise of minor parties and shifting voter preferences, sets the stage for an intriguing period ahead, particularly as major policy announcements loom on the horizon.
