East Timor is poised to realize a longstanding aspiration as it prepares to become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during the leaders’ summit scheduled for October 26-28, 2023. This milestone marks a significant political achievement for the nation, although the anticipated economic benefits remain uncertain.
The nation, home to approximately 1.4 million people and slightly larger than Qatar, submitted its application to join ASEAN in 2011. After being granted observer status in 2022, East Timor’s accession comes more than two decades after gaining independence from Indonesia in 2002. The transition was facilitated by a 1999 referendum overseen by the United Nations, which established East Timor as a sovereign state.
Historic Leadership and Economic Challenges
Two prominent figures from East Timor’s fight for independence currently lead the nation: President Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. Ramos-Horta first proposed the idea of joining ASEAN in the 1970s while East Timor was still a Portuguese colony. His vision will soon come to fruition as the country officially joins the regional bloc.
Commonly known as Timor-Leste, East Timor is seeking to diversify its economy, which is heavily reliant on dwindling oil and gas reserves valued at nearly USD 2 billion (approximately AUD 3.1 billion). Analysts suggest that while membership in ASEAN could enhance the country’s political standing, concerns persist regarding its economic competitiveness as the smallest economy in the group. ASEAN’s collective gross domestic product (GDP) stands at USD 3.8 trillion, with Indonesia alone accounting for USD 1.4 trillion.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim expressed optimism about ASEAN’s role in supporting its newer members, recalling that many current members were economically challenged at the bloc’s inception. “I’m very optimistic that ASEAN as a community can continue to engage more and assist,” he stated to reporters.
Strategic Benefits and Concerns
ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn noted that East Timor’s membership will amplify its voice in international forums and secure its strategic interests through established networks of diplomatic and economic support. In August, Ramos-Horta emphasized the significance of this achievement, stating, “The road to ASEAN is more difficult than the road to heaven.”
According to Marty Natalegawa, a former Indonesian Foreign Minister who facilitated East Timor’s application, ASEAN membership will provide a protective framework against geopolitical tensions involving major powers such as the United States and China. He remarked, “It provides assurances that Timor-Leste’s position and future development will be akin to ASEAN’s own.”
Despite these potential advantages, challenges remain. Guteriano Neves, an economic development researcher based in the capital Dili, cautioned that East Timor’s low productivity and governance issues may limit the economic gains from membership. He suggested that ASEAN membership could pressure the government to implement necessary institutional reforms to attract foreign investment. “Economically speaking, that is the hard question that I think we haven’t really found the answer to,” Neves commented. “It’s very hard for Timor-Leste to compete in the ASEAN market.”
As East Timor prepares to join ASEAN, the nation stands at a pivotal juncture, balancing the promise of increased legitimacy and support against the need for significant economic reforms to thrive within the regional framework.
