Queensland beef producers are driving a significant increase in rural confidence, as indicated by the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey. The survey, completed last month, reveals that optimism among primary producers in the state has risen sharply, primarily due to favourable seasonal conditions and strong international beef markets.
Overall, the survey showed a net confidence reading of 10 percent for Queensland producers, a notable improvement from the -2 percent recorded in the previous quarter. Approximately 31 percent of producers expect agricultural economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months, up from 24 percent, while 21 percent anticipate a decline, a drop from 26 percent previously. Almost half of those surveyed, 47 percent, believe business conditions will remain unchanged.
Regional Insights and Sectoral Variations
The survey indicated varied confidence levels across different regions. Producers in the south-west reported the highest optimism, with a net reading of 51 percent, a significant jump from 19 percent in the last quarter. Notably, none of the producers in this region expect worsening economic conditions. In contrast, producers in the Darling Downs reported the lowest confidence, with a net reading of -21 percent, down from -3 percent. Only 15 percent of those surveyed in this area expect improved conditions, a decline from 20 percent previously.
Confidence levels varied by commodity as well. Beef producers displayed the most robust sentiment, with a net reading of 21 percent, up from 14 percent. In this sector, 38 percent foresee improved business conditions in the upcoming year, compared to 31 percent in the last survey. Conversely, Queensland grain producers experienced a decline in confidence, with a net reading of -39 percent, down from -21 percent.
The survey highlighted that over half of the producers, 56 percent, cited good seasonal conditions as a primary factor for their optimism. Additionally, 34 percent anticipate that improved overseas markets will positively impact their agricultural businesses, an increase from 15 percent. Stable expectations regarding rising commodity prices remain at 36 percent.
Concerns and Investment Intentions
Despite the overall optimism, the survey revealed a slight easing in investment intentions. Only 30 percent of producers plan to invest more in their farm businesses over the next year, down from 37 percent in the prior survey. Meanwhile, 10 percent intend to reduce their investment, compared to 8 percent previously. However, 60 percent of respondents aim to maintain their current investment levels.
Key concerns affecting producers include government policies, with 42 percent citing this as a major issue, an increase from 37 percent previously. Rising input costs and challenges related to overseas markets were also significant concerns, noted by 36 percent of producers. Worries about drought rose sharply, with 30 percent expressing concern, up from 16 percent.
Polly Saraiva, Rabobank’s state manager for Queensland, acknowledged the contrasting sentiments between beef producers and those in the grain and cotton sectors. “While beef producers are buoyed by good seasonal conditions and strong prices, grain and cotton growers are apprehensive about rising production in international markets that have pressured local prices,” she stated.
Looking ahead, the survey suggests that producers are adapting to a shifting business environment. They are taking a long-term view and managing risks associated with rising costs and market uncertainties.
The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey remains a vital barometer of sentiment in Australian agriculture, surveying an average of 700 primary producers quarterly since 2000. The next results are set to be released in December 2025, providing further insights into the evolving landscape of Queensland’s rural economy.
