A recent international study has introduced a groundbreaking method for predicting the lifespan of mechanical equipment used in clean-energy systems. Conducted by a research team led by Tohoku University and East China University of Science and Technology, this research aims to improve the long-term performance of clean energy infrastructure, which includes wind turbines, solar power plants, and nuclear facilities. As the world intensifies its efforts toward carbon neutrality, assessing the durability of these systems has become increasingly vital.
Run-Zi Wang, an assistant professor at Tohoku University’s Advanced Institute for Materials Research, emphasizes the challenges faced by clean-energy components. They often suffer damage from heat, stress, and corrosion, which can interact in unpredictable ways. This complexity has made it difficult for engineers to accurately determine the lifespan of critical components. Traditionally, engineers have attempted to address this issue by increasing safety margins, designing equipment to withstand more stress than expected. Unfortunately, this approach can lead to excessive material use and increased wear and tear.
Wang illustrates this point with an analogy: “Imagine the temperature drops and you put on five sweaters because you can’t predict how cold you may feel; this could lead to increased stress from being too hot and wearing too many clothes.”
To tackle these challenges, Wang and his team developed a damage-driven lifetime design methodology. This innovative approach utilizes physics-informed models to monitor how equipment degrades under realistic conditions. The methodology is akin to assessing the wear of a bridge, taking into account not only traffic but also environmental factors such as wind, temperature changes, and moisture.
In a case study focused on components subjected to high-temperature creep, fatigue, and oxidation, the new method demonstrated more consistent lifetime predictions compared to conventional models. This enhanced accuracy provides engineers with clearer guidance on maintenance, design optimization, and long-term safety planning.
The study also underscores an important environmental connection. By extending the lifespan of clean-energy systems, the need for resource-intensive replacements is delayed, which in turn reduces total emissions throughout the equipment’s lifecycle. The researchers proposed a three-level framework that links improved lifetime predictions to measurable reductions in carbon output. Depending on the type of equipment, the model indicates that significant net carbon-reduction benefits could be achieved using this new methodology.
To accommodate various conditions globally, the team implemented a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates country-specific data, energy types, and operational environments. This probabilistic tool enhances the ability to forecast environmental outcomes, even in regions with limited monitoring systems.
“This work shows that lifetime design can connect engineering decisions with environmental responsibility,” summarized Wang. “By improving how we predict equipment performance, we can support clean-energy systems that are reliable and climate-conscious.”
Additionally, the research introduced the concept of a “full-chain technical tetrahedron,” which links lifetime design with materials science, manufacturing processes, and equipment operations. This comprehensive framework aims to inform the design of next-generation clean-energy infrastructure that is both dependable and efficient, aligning with global sustainability objectives.
The findings of this significant research were published in the journal Engineering on November 10, 2025, under the title “Accurate Lifetime Design of Critical Mechanical Equipment for Clean-Energy Generation in the Context of Carbon Neutrality.” The research team included notable figures such as Wen-Rui Nie, Chuanyang Lu, Zhengyang Zhang, Yipu Xu, Yutaka S. Sato, Hideo Miura, and Xian-Cheng Zhang, alongside Wang.
As the global community pushes toward a sustainable future, this research provides essential insights into the longevity and efficiency of clean-energy technologies, reinforcing the importance of integrating engineering practices with environmental stewardship.
