Support for the Coalition has reached a record low, while One Nation has surged to unprecedented heights, according to new polling data. The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted from December 2 to 7, 2023, reveals that concerns over Australia’s housing crisis and rising living costs are intensifying voter frustration, particularly regarding immigration policies.
The polling indicates that the Labor Party holds a commanding 55-45 percent lead in the two-party-preferred vote. This marks a notable improvement from the Coalition’s 53-47 lead reported in November. Labor’s primary vote increased by two percentage points to 35 percent, while the Coalition’s support fell by three points to 26 percent. One Nation’s primary vote climbed two points, reaching 14 percent. This represents the lowest recorded support for the Coalition and the highest for One Nation in the history of the Resolve Political Monitor.
The rise in support for One Nation coincides with growing dissatisfaction regarding Australia’s immigration settings. The poll indicates that two in three voters favor pausing all immigration until housing supply meets demand, with only 13 percent opposing such a measure. Additionally, 61 percent of respondents support restricting permanent migration to individuals possessing skills that Australia requires, while 17 percent are against this idea, and 23 percent remain undecided.
As the opposition prepares to unveil its migration policy, which is expected to recommend a reduction in immigration intake, public sentiment reflects a significant concern. A majority of 53 percent believe current migration levels are excessive, while only 4 percent consider them too low. The remaining respondents are divided, with 27 percent stating the levels are appropriate and 18 percent undecided.
The final survey results for 2025 also indicated that more respondents are inclined to vote for One Nation if former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce aligns with Pauline Hanson’s party. Specifically, 29 percent stated they would be more likely to support One Nation with Joyce’s involvement, compared to 19 percent who indicated they would be less likely to do so. Among Coalition and One Nation voters, support for a Joyce-led One Nation is even more pronounced, with 39 percent of Coalition voters and 49 percent of One Nation voters expressing increased likelihood of support.
The poll, which surveyed 1,800 respondents, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent. The decline in Coalition support follows a tumultuous period during which the party settled its stance on net zero emissions by 2050, amidst internal conflicts and public dissatisfaction.
Despite the drop in primary support for the Coalition, Sussan Ley’s personal performance rating improved, rising from 34 percent to 39 percent in terms of being rated good or very good. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s lead over Ley as the preferred prime minister strengthened, with 41 percent of voters opting for him, compared to 26 percent for Ley.
When asked to identify their top policy priority, 42 percent of respondents selected “keeping the cost of living low,” significantly outpacing other issues. This figure includes 9 percent specifically concerned with housing prices and rents. Other notable issues include health and aged care at 10 percent, crime and anti-social behaviour at 9 percent, and national security and climate change, each at 6 percent.
Labor continues to maintain a solid advantage over the Coalition across numerous policy areas, including health, education, and climate. Notably, Labor’s reputation as a better economic manager has shifted, with a net lead of plus three percentage points over the Coalition, a remarkable turnaround from January 2025, when they trailed by 19 percentage points.
As these dynamics unfold, the political landscape in Australia appears increasingly complex, with the Coalition, under the leadership of Ley, facing mounting challenges from both public sentiment and rising opposition parties.
