The quantum technology sector is entering a new phase after a decade of rapid expansion, as outlined in a recent study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Patent Office (EPO). This shift marks a transition from early explosive growth to a period of more concentrated development and maturing technologies, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in the industry.
Over the past ten years, the quantum landscape has experienced significant changes, including a sevenfold increase in international patent families (IPFs) from 2005 to 2024. The sector has grown at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% since 2014, far exceeding the general technological growth rate of 2%. Quantum computing, in particular, has emerged as the most vibrant area, with patenting activities increasing nearly twentyfold over the last decade, surpassing quantum communication in 2022.
Despite this impressive growth, recent data suggests a plateau in the creation of new firms in the quantum space, especially after a peak in total investment volumes in 2021. The market has seen a decline in 2022 and 2023, although there are signs of a partial recovery in 2024. This trend mirrors broader fluctuations in venture capital markets. Although the number of firms receiving funding has remained stable, the average deal sizes have decreased.
Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the OECD, emphasized the potential of quantum technologies to enhance productivity and drive scientific advancements. “This will require ensuring the right conditions for these technologies to scale, from investment and skills to resilient supply chains,” he stated. He further noted that strategic national policies could optimize the economic and societal benefits of quantum innovations.
The study highlights the diversity within the quantum ecosystem. More than 80% of active organizations are established companies, universities, and public research entities whose primary focus lies outside quantum technologies. These entities account for the majority of patents and job postings in the sector. As technologies mature, large, established companies are well positioned to lead the commercialisation efforts.
In terms of workforce composition, the quantum sector remains strongly science-driven. Over half of quantum start-up founders hold a PhD, compared to approximately 10% among founders of companies in general. Job vacancies are predominantly in computer science (26%), science and research (25%), and education and training (10%), while roles focused on commercialisation constitute less than 10% of total job postings.
Despite the promising outlook, the quantum ecosystem faces significant challenges, particularly concerning the concentration of supply chains for essential materials like industrial diamonds and aluminium oxide. Ensuring resilient access to these critical inputs is vital for fostering innovation and mitigating potential risks.
Recognizing the transformative potential of quantum technologies, governments have begun to take action. In the past decade, 18 OECD countries have implemented comprehensive national quantum strategies, resulting in a steady increase in public research and development funding. Moreover, the number of quantum-related project awards has risen in proportion to this funding.
As the sector progresses from rapid growth to more focused development, it becomes increasingly important for governments to balance support for fundamental research with initiatives aimed at strengthening supply chain resilience. Building a robust talent pool and promoting collaboration between public and private sectors will be crucial for ensuring that quantum technologies can scale effectively and fulfill their economic and societal promises.
The complete press release from the EPO regarding this report is accessible in English, French, and German.
