China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are set to close the year on a high note, experiencing a significant rebound after a prolonged slump. According to data from Kpler, imports are expected to reach approximately 7.17 million tons by the end of December, following a robust performance in November. This marks a notable shift, as it will be the second consecutive month of import increases after enduring a lengthy period of declines.
The shift in trend comes after forecasts in late November anticipated another drop in LNG imports. Contrary to those expectations, actual figures revealed an annual increase of 13.6% in November, with imports reaching 6.94 million tons, as per customs data released earlier this month. This positive development follows a concerning stretch of 12 consecutive months of declining imports.
Record Russian LNG Imports Drive Growth
Imports from Russia have played a pivotal role in this recovery, surging to an all-time high of 1.6 million tons in November, doubling the volume from October. This growth occurred despite earlier predictions of a decline in Russian LNG imports. Last year, China had ramped up LNG and pipeline gas imports to fill storage facilities, leading to a 14.3% annual increase in total natural gas imports, which reached 64.65 million tons in the first half of the year.
However, following this surge, imports began to weaken as storage capacities reached their limits. Throughout 2025, demand for LNG has softened considerably, attributed to an increase in domestic natural gas production. This expansion aligns with China’s strategy to enhance its reliance on local energy sources. Earlier in the year, domestic gas production reached an all-time high, resulting in LNG imports plummeting to their lowest levels in six years, down 19% year-on-year during the first seven months.
Outlook for 2026 Remains Cautious
Despite the end-of-year rebound in LNG imports, projections indicate that the total for 2025 will fall below that of 2024. Bloomberg reports that an overall decline of 12% in LNG imports is anticipated for this year, with a further decrease of 9% expected in 2026.
As the year draws to a close, the import data suggests a complicated landscape for China’s energy sector, reflecting both the immediate recovery in LNG imports and the ongoing challenges posed by domestic production trends and market dynamics.
