The release of cabinet papers has revealed that the government led by John Howard was explicitly warned of potential catastrophic climate impacts, such as bushfires and systemic environmental failures, prior to its decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Former minister Philip Ruddock highlighted these warnings during a press conference following the disclosure of the documents by the National Archives of Australia on January 1, 2023.
According to the 10-page submission dated August 8, 2005, the government was informed of extensive scientific research detailing the serious environmental and societal consequences of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions. This revelation underscores the internal debate among ministers regarding Australia’s commitment to binding emissions targets, despite a growing international consensus on the need for action against climate change.
Ruddock stated that the Howard government was well aware of the scientific warnings surrounding climate change, noting, “These documents indicate that there were others who had doubts about whether they were willing to commit to negotiations on Kyoto-style greenhouse gas emissions targets.” He emphasized that the cabinet papers clearly referenced environmental risks, such as bushfires, which have recently been highlighted by the devastating fires across New South Wales.
The submission, authored by then-foreign minister Alexander Downer and environment minister Ian Campbell, urged the Cabinet to acknowledge that climate change was occurring at an accelerated pace, with some changes happening sooner than anticipated. The document pointed out that Australia experienced a greater increase in average temperatures during the 20th century compared to global averages.
Ruddock remarked on the specific threats facing Australia, noting, “The magnitude of climate change in Australia, combined with marginal rainfall in many of our key agricultural areas and a heavy reliance on irrigation, is likely to make Australia more vulnerable to climate change than most developed countries.” This foresight reflects a significant understanding of the challenges Australia would face in terms of water resources and agricultural stability.
Although Australia signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, it ultimately opted not to ratify it under Howard’s coalition government. The government cited concerns over potential economic disadvantages when compared to major emitters like the United States and China. The cabinet papers revealed that Australia was on track to meet its Kyoto target of 108 percent of 1990 levels by 2012 but projected emissions might reach 123 percent by 2020.
Ruddock’s comments suggest that the decision not to ratify the protocol was not made out of ignorance regarding the science but was a politically strategic judgment based on Australia’s negotiating position. He stated, “I’ve always been of the view that the world is going to address it. But we need to be ensuring that Australia plays its part.”
Reflecting on the recent climate-related disasters, Ruddock urged contemporary leaders to take heed of the evidence available to the Howard government. He argued that the current climate crisis underscores the importance of revisiting these documents to inform modern policy decisions.
In 2007, the Howard government proposed an emissions trading scheme during the election, but it ultimately lost to the Kevin Rudd-led Labor opposition, which ratified the Kyoto agreement in December of that year. This marked the beginning of a contentious period of debate within the Liberal Party over climate policies, which has led to significant internal divisions and leadership changes over the past 15 years.
The cabinet papers serve as a crucial reminder of the long-standing awareness of climate risks within Australian politics, highlighting the need for ongoing discussions about effective responses to climate change and environmental sustainability.
