The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked significant debate about its effects on employment and economic growth. Contrary to popular belief, economist Renaud Foucart argues that mass unemployment is not an imminent threat. Instead, he points to historical trends that suggest while AI may displace certain jobs, it also creates new opportunities within the workforce.
In the European Union, the unemployment rate sits at a historic low of around 6%, significantly lower than a decade ago. The United Kingdom boasts an even lower rate of 5.1%, reminiscent of the economic boom in the early 2000s. The United States follows with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. These figures illustrate a stark contrast to the fears surrounding AI’s impact on the job market.
Historically, technological advancements have led to job transformations rather than outright elimination. For instance, in 1800, about a third of British workers were involved in agriculture. Today, that number has dwindled to roughly 1%. Advances in farming technology enabled the country to lead in the industrial revolution. Similarly, after the introduction of the first ATM by Barclays in 1967, concerns arose about potential job losses for bank tellers. Instead, the number of tellers in the US rose by 10% over the next 30 years, as ATMs helped expand access to banking services.
While AI is poised to alter job landscapes, it is essential to consider how it can enhance rather than diminish job value. Many American workers express concerns about losing their jobs to AI, with a significant portion of the population feeling these worries are justified. Yet, the shifts brought about by technology have historically resulted in sustained economic growth. AI, akin to past innovations such as computers and the internet, represents a gradual transformation.
Foucart emphasizes that the challenge lies in ensuring that workers find roles where technology increases productivity, rather than relegating them to subordinate positions. The relationship between AI and job roles can vary significantly. For example, the introduction of ATMs allowed bank tellers to focus more on customer service and advisory roles, enhancing their value in the banking sector.
The question of inequality also arises in the context of AI. Initial expectations suggested that widespread access to AI tools would level the playing field among workers. However, recent studies indicate that highly skilled entrepreneurs are reaping the most benefits from AI support. The act of seeking and utilizing AI advice may itself be a skill that not all workers possess.
Research conducted by Foucart and his colleagues found that providing top-quality advice to chess players did little to narrow the performance gap between high and low-ability players. This dynamic suggests that some individuals may exploit AI to manage their lives more effectively, while others remain trapped in low-productivity jobs without the means to improve their situation.
Throughout history, technological revolutions have generally improved global wealth, health, and comfort, but they have also presented challenges during transitions. The future will depend on how societies adapt to these changes, striving to empower all workers to take control of AI technologies rather than becoming subservient to them.
As the dialogue about AI continues, it remains crucial for policymakers, businesses, and educators to work together to ensure a balanced approach that fosters growth and inclusivity in the evolving job market.
