The upcoming election in the federal seat of Farrer presents a crucial test for the newly appointed Liberal Party leader, Angus Taylor. With the party’s recent struggles, Taylor has an opportunity to reclaim essential ground if he identifies a strong candidate and effectively addresses the pressing issues facing voters. The dynamics of the past few elections serve as a cautionary tale; just nine weeks saw former opposition leader Peter Dutton lose the 2025 election despite an initially advantageous position.
Political analysis reveals that ineffective leadership can significantly lower voter satisfaction. Over the past 55 years, observations indicate that a decline in net satisfaction scores, typically three to four points, correlates with a loss of approximately one primary vote point in subsequent polls. During the chaotic final weeks of the 2025 campaign, Dutton’s inability to present coherent policies and his series of gaffes led to a staggering net satisfaction score of minus 28 points. This contributed to a decline in the Coalition’s primary vote by seven points, resulting in a decisive victory for the Labor Party, which secured 94 seats.
With Dutton’s departure, Sussan Ley took over as opposition leader, beginning with a neutral slate regarding voter satisfaction. However, her leadership has seen a decline in the Coalition’s primary vote, which fell to approximately 22.5 percent, reflecting a loss of over nine points. Ley’s net satisfaction scores plummeted to minus 42 points, making Dutton look relatively more favorable in comparison. Historically, when a poor leader is replaced, the opinion polls often show a temporary recovery, which may benefit Taylor in the short term.
The shift in voter allegiance has seen many of Ley’s lost supporters gravitating towards One Nation. Current polling indicates that One Nation’s recent surge, with an 18-point swing, is not solely drawn from discontented Coalition voters; it also includes six points from minor parties and independents, along with three points from disillusioned Labor supporters. The challenge for Taylor lies in understanding and addressing the issues that have driven these voters away, particularly in Farrer.
Research conducted by Redbridge highlights key voter concerns in Farrer, identifying cost of living, healthcare, housing, and immigration as the most pressing issues. Notably, Farrer ranks 16th from the bottom in terms of mean income among all 150 Australian electorates. This economic context suggests that swings towards One Nation regarding the cost of living may be even more pronounced in Farrer than the national average.
The demographic profile of Farrer reveals a constituency composed largely of individuals involved in blue-collar sectors such as farming and mining, as well as veterans of the Australian Defence Force. The nature of these jobs often leads to higher rates of chronic health conditions, demanding quality healthcare services. Issues surrounding housing and immigration are also tightly linked, making it essential for Taylor to recognize the sentiments of voters who have shifted their support towards One Nation.
The recent adjustments in interest rates by the Reserve Bank have further complicated the situation. As rates rise, young renters find themselves squeezed, often living in cramped conditions. While Farrer may not be dominated by young voters, there is a significant proportion of renters who aspire to homeownership. This demographic shift emphasizes the need for Taylor to connect with voters on housing affordability.
Analysing the characteristics of seats that supported One Nation in the 2025 election reveals a pattern: they are often rural, provincial, or outer urban constituencies with lower incomes and a high proportion of English-speaking, Australian-born residents. Farrer, home to many of these “bush battlers,” saw surprising support for Michelle Milthorpe, the teal candidate, in the last election, particularly in Albury. This shift highlights the potential for preference votes to sway the outcome in future elections.
Currently, betting odds from Sportsbet place Milthorpe as the frontrunner at $2.40, followed closely by the Nationals at $2.60, with One Nation at $3.50 and the Liberals at $7. Despite these odds, some analyses suggest that the Liberal candidate could secure around 53 percent of preferences, defeating Milthorpe at 47 percent.
In conclusion, as the Liberal Party navigates this pivotal moment, the performance of Angus Taylor and the candidate he endorses for Farrer will be critical. The ability to connect with voters on their key concerns could not only determine the fate of this seat but also potentially reshape the future of the party in the lead-up to the next election.
