UPDATE: Atradius just announced alarming findings in its latest Energy Outlook, revealing significant risks for fuel-importing economies. As of March 10, 2026, the report warns that a slowdown in the global energy transition will result in prolonged higher prices for oil and gas. This shift poses an increasing economic threat for nations reliant on imported energy.
The report highlights that demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak later than anticipated, leaving countries exposed to volatile energy prices. Of particular concern, Atradius identified 63 countries where net fuel-import bills exceed 4% of GDP, many of which are emerging markets grappling with substantial current-account deficits.
Niels de Hoog, Senior Economist at Atradius, stated,
“With the energy transition slowing and the Middle East war unfolding, many emerging economies are once again at the mercy of global oil price swings.”
He emphasized that improvements in energy efficiency, the primary factor reducing fossil-fuel dependence, are likely to diminish. This trend leaves nations increasingly vulnerable to surging fuel costs.
The report underscores that while progress in renewable energy is ongoing, it remains inadequate to substantially cut fossil-fuel demand. The transition to electrification in heavy transport, industry, and heating is advancing too slowly to make a meaningful impact.
Atradius’ analysis indicates that more than half of the fuel-importing countries examined could face a deterioration in their current-account positions by 2035. This risk is particularly acute for already vulnerable nations such as Tunisia, Pakistan, and Lebanon.
The implications of these developments are profound for millions of people in these regions, as rising energy costs could exacerbate existing economic hardships. Fuel-importing economies are urged to adopt a comprehensive resilience strategy immediately. This approach must include accelerating investments in domestic renewable energy, enhancing electrification, and improving export capacities to mitigate external vulnerabilities.
Atradius concludes with a stark warning: the slowdown in the energy transition is a clear signal that these nations must bolster their economic resilience. As energy prices are expected to remain elevated, the urgency for action has never been more critical.
For further information and insights, visit the Atradius website. Share this urgent update to raise awareness about the challenges facing fuel-importing economies!
