Queensland has emerged as a significant electoral challenge for the Coalition, as recent polling indicates a shift in support from the Liberal and National parties to One Nation. An exclusive quarterly analysis by Newspoll for The Australian, covering data from September 29 to November 20, highlights these changes in voter sentiment across various demographics and states. This trend poses a notable hurdle for Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as she attempts to regain traction against Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
The analysis, conducted prior to the Bondi Beach terrorist attack and Labor’s expenses scandal, reveals deep-rooted issues within the Coalition that will require attention over the summer months. Queensland, a crucial battleground for federal elections, stands out as the focal point of the Coalition’s decline. One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has seen its primary vote rise to 18 percent in the state, while Labor’s support climbed to 33 percent. In stark contrast, the Coalition’s primary vote fell to 27 percent, reflecting a six-point decrease since the previous quarter, with much of the lost support transferring to One Nation, which gained eight points.
Nationally, the quarterly snapshot captured a historic low for the Coalition in October, with its primary support dropping to 24 percent, marking the lowest level since Newspoll began tracking votes in 1985. The final poll of the year, released in late November, confirmed the Coalition remained stagnant at this level, allowing Labor to secure a two-party-preferred lead of 58–42 percent, matching its largest margin since the May election.
The demographic breakdown reveals a troubling trend for the Coalition. Older Australians and those without a university education are increasingly shifting their allegiance to One Nation, compounding the party’s ongoing difficulties in appealing to younger and more educated voters. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor’s two-party-preferred lead has widened to 67–33 percent, with Green Party support reaching 26 percent, outpacing the Coalition by seven points. Labor maintains double-digit leads across most age groups, except for those over 65, where One Nation’s recent recruitment of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has bolstered its support.
Support for the Coalition has waned across both genders during the final quarter of the year, again benefitting One Nation. Ley’s personal approval ratings remain low, with only 27 percent of men and 28 percent of women expressing satisfaction with her performance. In contrast, a significant majority of voters view Albanese as the preferable prime minister. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister recorded his weakest results in Queensland, where 53 percent of voters expressed dissatisfaction, despite Labor holding a narrow two-party-preferred advantage of 52–48 percent.
Labor’s dominance extends beyond Queensland, with strong leads in other states, including Victoria (60–40), New South Wales (58–42), Western Australia (56–44), and South Australia (58–42). As scrutiny increases over the Coalition’s response to the Bondi attack and rising concerns about anti-Semitism, party strategists view the summer as an opportunity to recover lost ground.
Members of Parliament will reconvene in Canberra in January, following Albanese’s early recall of parliament to advance tougher anti-vilification and hate speech laws. Since the tragic events at Bondi Beach, Ley has focused efforts on supporting the Jewish-Australian community and has called for a royal commission into rising anti-Semitism and the government’s response. Senior figures within the Liberal and National parties have indicated that addressing issues related to Islamic extremism and border policies could strengthen the Coalition’s platform as it aims to reconnect with voters who have shifted towards One Nation.
