The European Union is poised for significant discussions and decisions as it resumes operations in September following a month-long summer hiatus. With critical issues on the agenda, diplomats and officials will face challenges that could shape the bloc’s future. This article highlights five key flashpoints to watch as the EU navigates complex geopolitical and internal dynamics.
Frozen Russian Assets Spark Debate
Since the imposition of sanctions in February 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, over 200 billion euros (approximately $233 billion) in Russian assets have remained frozen within the EU. The upcoming informal gathering of EU foreign ministers in Denmark on August 29-30, known as Gymnich, is expected to reignite discussions on these assets.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has emphasized the need for a thorough debate on the future of these funds. Some Eastern European member states advocate for immediate seizure to fund military support for Ukraine, arguing that it is fair to use Russian resources instead of burdening European taxpayers. Conversely, larger member states caution against such actions, suggesting that the assets could be pivotal in peace negotiations or future legal proceedings against Russia. Concerns from the European Central Bank about the potential impact on the euro’s stability add another layer of complexity to the discussion.
Accession Talks for Moldova and Ukraine Stalled
Moldova and Ukraine, both granted candidate status for EU membership in 2022, have encountered a significant hurdle in their accession talks. Hungary has blocked the commencement of negotiations, citing concerns over the rights of the Hungarian-speaking minority in Ukraine. This blockage affects Moldova due to their linked candidacy status.
While discussions have emerged about decoupling the two nations to allow Moldova to advance independently, no consensus has been reached. Hungary’s stance is unlikely to shift until after its parliamentary elections in April 2026. Meanwhile, Moldova’s own elections on September 28 will be closely watched, particularly regarding the pro-EU government’s prospects.
Georgia’s Compliance Under Scrutiny
As the EU continues to monitor Georgia’s political landscape, significant developments are anticipated in the coming months. The European Commission has set out eight benchmarks for Georgia to meet by the end of August, including the repeal of controversial laws on foreign influence and family values. Observers in Brussels remain skeptical about Tbilisi’s compliance, raising questions about the EU’s potential responses.
Sanctions against officials from the ruling Georgian Dream party have faced opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, complicating the EU’s approach. Brussels is considering the suspension of Georgia’s visa liberalization as a possible consequence, which would require a qualified majority of member states. This would mark a historic first for the EU’s relations with a candidate country.
Launch of Entry/Exit System (EES) on the Horizon
On October 12, the EU will initiate the rollout of its Entry/Exit System (EES), a major development for non-EU nationals traveling to 24 EU member states. This system aims to streamline border control processes by replacing manual passport stamping with an advanced IT framework that records entries, exits, fingerprints, and facial images.
The six-month rollout will be gradual to avoid overwhelming international travel hubs. If successful, the EES is expected to pave the way for the introduction of the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) later in 2026, impacting around 1.4 billion travelers from visa-exempt countries, including the United States and several Eastern European nations.
Political Landscape Shifts in Central Europe
The autumn political landscape in Europe will see notable elections, particularly in Moldova and the Netherlands, and significant implications for the Czech Republic. In the Netherlands, a snap election in late October could see the populist right-wing PVV party gain ground, while a potential coalition of center-left and green parties could emerge to form a government.
In the Czech Republic, elections on October 3-4 will be pivotal, with indications that the populist Andrej Babis may reclaim power. The outcome could influence the Czech Republic’s stance within the EU, particularly as neighboring Slovakia and Hungary shift toward more populist governance.
As the Visegrad Four countries re-emerge as a cohesive bloc, their combined skepticism towards Brussels and Kyiv could challenge the EU’s collective decision-making. The outcomes of these elections may reshape the political dynamics in Central Europe and beyond, setting the stage for further developments in the EU’s approach to its member states and neighboring nations.
The coming months will present the EU with critical challenges and opportunities as it seeks to navigate complex internal and external pressures. The decisions made during this period will have long-lasting implications for the bloc’s unity and its role on the global stage.
