The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is prompting a flurry of diplomatic activity in Europe. Scheduled to take place on August 15, 2023, in Alaska, this summit marks the first high-level US-Russia meeting in over four years. The European Union (EU) and various European nations are now working to prevent the United States from making decisions that could undermine their interests, particularly regarding ongoing tensions in Ukraine.
European officials are keen to ensure that the US does not “fall into a trap” during the summit. They aim to bolster diplomatic support for Ukraine while preparing additional sanctions against Russia. Despite their efforts, the EU finds itself in a precarious position, with little to no new diplomatic initiatives to secure a prominent role in the discussions that will shape the continent’s future.
Last week, Brussels returned from its summer recess with an urgent sense of purpose. The announcement of the Trump-Putin summit caught many by surprise, especially given the US administration’s track record of avoiding significant action against Russia. In the wake of this news, European leaders have engaged in a series of diplomatic maneuvers. These include meetings with US Vice President JD Vance in Britain and a videoconference among the EU’s foreign ministers on August 11. Following these discussions, several European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, plan to confer with Trump on August 13.
Despite these initiatives, European officials report a sense of confusion regarding the US’s objectives for the summit. Conversations with anonymous sources indicate that various factions within the US administration have differing strategies, leading to what some describe as “chaotic” communications from Washington. European diplomats express cautious optimism about their outreach efforts but remain uncertain about the outcomes of the Alaska meeting.
European leaders have articulated clear “red lines” concerning the situation in Ukraine. They insist on a cease-fire before any discussions about potential concessions from Kyiv. Additionally, they demand security guarantees for Ukraine and mechanisms to monitor the cease-fire. While many European officials see a role for themselves in negotiations, they are also acutely aware that their influence is limited.
When it comes to the issue of territory seized by Russia, the EU has made it clear that it will support Ukraine’s decisions, though they want to be involved in the discussions. The EU will not formally recognize any Russian claim to Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which has been under Russian control since 2014. Skepticism remains regarding Russia’s willingness to withdraw troops from occupied areas, with diplomats recalling past instances where Russian forces have failed to leave territories in Moldova and Georgia.
Despite the EU’s insistence on being part of the conversation, the reality is that they have been sidelined. Unlike the prelude to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when Europe was actively engaged in negotiations through NATO and other platforms, current efforts appear to lack a similar level of engagement.
The EU is preparing for a 19th round of sanctions against Russia, but officials acknowledge that previous measures have only served as irritants rather than altering the Kremlin’s strategic calculations. The bloc also holds over 200 billion euros in frozen Russian assets, which may become a bargaining chip in future negotiations, particularly if discussions turn toward reparations.
The sanctions currently in place will require renewal by January 2026, necessitating unanimous agreement among EU member states. Some diplomats have suggested that certain measures could be lifted if Russia demonstrates compliance with a potential agreement, but no substantive discussions have taken place regarding the sequencing of these concessions.
In earlier discussions, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer proposed the deployment of a “reassurance force” of up to 20,000 European troops to western Ukraine. While this plan is still being evaluated, uncertainties regarding engagement rules and potential US support remain unresolved.
Many argue that NATO membership would provide the ultimate security guarantee for Ukraine, yet consensus on this matter appears elusive among alliance members. This lack of agreement mirrors previous discussions at NATO summits in 2023 and 2024.
As Brussels continues to assert its position through public statements, internal divisions within the EU have become apparent. Notably, Hungary has refrained from endorsing certain measures, reflecting its favorable relationship with Russia. Budapest is currently obstructing Ukraine’s EU aspirations and may hinder future financial aid to Kyiv. Although Hungary currently stands alone in its defiance of Brussels, it may find allies if a significant US-Russia agreement emerges without European involvement.
The upcoming summit in Alaska represents a critical moment for Europe, as leaders grapple with the need to assert their relevance in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
