The F1 Wagyu market continues to experience a decline in prices, tracking below long-term averages as of July 2025. Premiums over broader cattle market benchmarks remain compressed, highlighting ongoing challenges within the industry. The average F1 Wagyu price for July settled at 962 cents per kilogram (c/kg) carcass weight (cwt), which is an improvement from the May low of 848 c/kg, but significantly below the peaks observed in 2022.
The National Feeder Steer Indicator (NFSI) closed July at 792 c/kg, while the National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) was recorded at 747 c/kg. This narrowing of the F1 Wagyu premium spread to just 21 percent compared to the NFSI indicates a concerning trend for producers. Throughout 2025, F1 Wagyu prices have remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 850-1050 c/kg cwt, mirroring previous oversupply phases when lower-quality cattle flooded the market, resulting in suppressed values.
The decline in premiums for F1 Wagyu has been notable. From a peak of over 600 c/kg live weight (lwt) in early 2022, the premium over feeder steers has steadily eroded to around 50 cents above zero by mid-2025. This trend reflects not only decreasing demand for Wagyu beef but also the relative strength of feeder cattle prices this year. The monthly averages for 2025 have shown values around 90 cents higher than the NFSI, reinforcing the connection to the 2018-19 oversupply period, during which quality variations in the F1 pool negatively impacted overall market performance.
As of late July, the industry average premium to the NFSI has dropped from approximately 140 cents at the beginning of 2025 to just 45 cents. This change highlights a broader issue of domestic oversupply coupled with sluggish international demand for Wagyu beef. Unless there is a significant shift in demand in premium beef markets overseas or a tightening of F1 supply, it is likely that the market will continue to operate in the lower deciles of its long-term premium range for the remainder of 2025.
The challenges facing the F1 Wagyu sector reflect a complex interplay of domestic supply dynamics and global demand factors. As stakeholders monitor market trends, the urgency for a recovery in premium beef demand is paramount to stabilizing prices and restoring the sector’s profitability.
