Research from Rystad Energy indicates a notable increase in the global volume of discovered and recoverable oil resources. Over the past year, this figure has risen by 5 billion barrels, despite the production of approximately 30 billion barrels worldwide in 2024. This increase is largely attributed to the exploration of untapped potential in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta play and the Permian Delaware basin located in Texas and New Mexico.
Global recoverable oil resources, which include estimates for undiscovered fields, have stabilized at around 1.5 trillion barrels. Significant revisions over the last decade reveal a reduction of 456 billion barrels in projections for yet-to-find resources. This decline is primarily due to a decrease in frontier exploration, unsuccessful shale developments outside of the Americas, and a doubling of offshore costs in the past five years.
Future Projections and Market Implications
Looking ahead, Rystad Energy predicts that reserve replacements from new conventional oil projects will account for less than 30% of production in the coming five years, with exploration expected to replace only about 10%. Historically, a total of 1,572 billion barrels of crude oil have been produced globally from 1900 through 2024. Currently, the world’s proven oil reserves are estimated to last merely 14 years at the current production rate.
If global oil demand increases as projected by OPEC, supply may struggle to keep pace, even with attractive pricing for producers. Conversely, if the energy transition progresses as anticipated, particularly with the increased electrification of transportation—evidenced by trends in China—future oil demand is likely to decline. Should oil demand rise over the next few decades, global recoverable resources may prove insufficient to satisfy this demand, leading to a constrained economic environment unable to compete with less capital-intensive energy sources.
Rystad Energy’s analysis does not foresee a significant increase in oil demand towards 2050. The company concludes that the worst-case warming scenarios evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will not come to fruition. In its highest scenario, which predicts a 2.5°C rise in temperature, future CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will be capped at 2,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2). Of this total, 900 Gt will originate from coal, 600 Gt from oil, and 500 Gt from natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). This projection is notably 500 Gt less than the IPCC’s mid-scenario, which suggests a rise in global temperatures of 2.8°C.
The findings from Rystad Energy present a complex picture for the future of global oil resources, highlighting both the potential for growth in certain regions and the challenges posed by shifting energy demands and exploration costs.
