The United States has intensified efforts to disrupt the oil trade between Venezuela and Cuba, a strategy aimed at weakening the regime of Nicolás Maduro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has identified financial channels as critical in this approach, suggesting that destabilizing Cuba could lead to further instability in Venezuela. This shift follows a period during President Trump’s administration, when the Maduro government appeared vulnerable to regime change, only to receive substantial support from Cuba.
According to reporting by The New York Times, the U.S. administration is focused on cutting off resources to Cuba as a means to expedite the downfall of the Maduro regime. Juan S. Gonzalez, a former top aide for Western Hemisphere affairs under President Joe Biden, noted, “Their theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba. Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow.”
A recent incident involving the tanker Skipper has underscored the significance of the oil trade between these two nations. The vessel was seized while transporting crude oil contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm. Shipping data indicates the Skipper was bound for the Cuban port of Matanzas, where it was expected to deliver a portion of its cargo.
After departing, the Skipper transferred approximately 50,000 barrels of oil to another vessel, the Neptune 6, which then proceeded to Cuba. The majority of the oil remained on board as the ship redirected towards Asia. This trade has historical roots, with Venezuela providing subsidized oil to Cuba for decades, a vital resource for the island’s economy.
In exchange for the oil, Cuba has dispatched thousands of healthcare professionals, sports instructors, and security personnel to Venezuela. This arrangement has become particularly important as Maduro increasingly relies on Cuban advisors for protection against perceived threats, including the U.S. military presence in the region.
Recent reports indicate that only a small fraction of the oil originally allocated to Cuba has actually reached the island. According to data from Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and tanker tracking records, much of the Venezuelan oil has been rerouted to China, generating essential revenue for the Cuban government. This diversion has financial implications for both nations, as it provides hard currency amid economic challenges.
Central to the Venezuela-Cuba oil nexus is Ramon Carretero, a Panamanian businessman identified as a key intermediary in the oil trade. The U.S. Treasury Department recently sanctioned Carretero for his role in facilitating these shipments. His operations have positioned him as one of the largest traders of Venezuelan oil, further complicating U.S. efforts to disrupt this flow.
Compounding the situation, the Skipper has a history with Iran’s covert oil fleet, having transported oil to Syria and China before its current involvement with Venezuelan crude. This connection raises questions about the broader geopolitical implications of U.S. actions in the Caribbean.
The current strategy from the U.S. government aims to significantly reduce the volume of crude oil flowing from Venezuela to Cuba and beyond. Such moves could lead to a cascading effect, exacerbating economic difficulties in Cuba and undermining Maduro’s power. As of now, China has not publicly reacted to the seizure of the Skipper or the disruption of crude supplies, leaving analysts speculating about potential diplomatic repercussions.
As the U.S. continues to exert pressure, the future of the Venezuela-Cuba oil relationship remains uncertain, with significant implications for both nations and the broader region.
