The UK government has been alerted to a potential gas supply crisis that could emerge by the end of the decade. Energy advisers are urging ministers to create comprehensive plans to mitigate this risk, which threatens to leave homes and businesses without gas during severe cold weather.
The warning comes from the National Energy System Operator (Neso), which recently published its first assessment of gas supply since its establishment. The report indicates that while gas demand in the UK is projected to decline, there remains a significant risk of shortfalls on the coldest days, especially if the country’s aging gas infrastructure experiences outages.
In its findings, Neso noted that although current gas supplies are sufficient to meet demand under normal weather conditions, an “emerging risk to gas supply security” exists. The report highlights that any failure in the infrastructure could lead to drastic measures, including the potential shutdown of gas supplies to factories and power plants. In extreme cases, households might also face disruptions, with recovery potentially taking weeks or even months, as stated in separate government analyses.
The UK has increasingly relied on imports of gas, sourcing it from pipelines connecting to Norway and continental Europe, along with shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries like Qatar and the United States. While approximately one-third of the UK’s gas originates from North Sea fields, domestic production has plummeted to its lowest levels in 50 years and is expected to decline further as the decade progresses.
Deborah Petterson, the resilience director at Neso, emphasized the importance of collaboration among stakeholders to ensure reliable gas supplies for consumers. She pointed out that while the risk of a shortfall could be minimized with a fully operational gas supply and network infrastructure, challenges could arise if the UK’s progress in decarbonisation slows down, leaving the nation more dependent on gas.
Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, a director at National Gas, which manages Britain’s gas network, reiterated that gas remains a critical component of the country’s energy security. He stated, “Gas is vital for keeping homes warm, powering industry, and supporting electricity generation during peak demand periods, particularly when renewable energy output is low.”
As the UK navigates its energy future, experts advocate for a thorough examination of both the gas supply landscape and the necessary investments in network infrastructure to safeguard against potential shortages. The government’s proactive approach will be essential in addressing these emerging challenges to ensure the energy needs of the population are met effectively and sustainably.
