The rapid integration of artificial intelligence into daily life has sparked widespread concerns about potential job losses. According to Renaud Foucart, a Senior Lecturer in Economics at Lancaster University Management School, the real risk posed by AI is not mass unemployment, as many fear, but rather the uneven distribution of benefits among workers.
AI tools like ChatGPT have transformed how people communicate and process information since their introduction less than three years ago. Despite these advancements, the current employment landscape suggests a different narrative. Unemployment rates in the European Union stand at approximately 6%, a significant decrease from a decade ago. In the United Kingdom, the rate is even lower at 5.1%, mirroring figures from the economic boom of the early 2000s. The United States reports a rate of 4.4%, indicating a robust job market.
Historically, technological advancements have led to job displacement, but they have also created new opportunities. For example, in 1800, about one-third of British workers were employed in agriculture, a figure that has now dwindled to around 1%. This shift facilitated the country’s leadership in the industrial revolution. Similarly, when the first automated teller machine (ATM) was introduced by Barclays in 1967, there were fears of bank teller job losses. Contrary to these predictions, the number of bank tellers in the U.S. increased by 10% over the following three decades, as ATMs enabled the expansion of bank branches and improved access to financial services.
While it is undeniable that some jobs will be lost to AI, the overall economic impact remains relatively stable. A third of Americans express concern over potential job loss due to AI, and many might be right. Yet, just as with previous revolutions, AI’s slow and gradual integration offers opportunities for new business models and roles to emerge. This transition does not equate to immediate job growth or loss; rather, it reflects how firms may exploit AI as a justification for routine job cuts.
The introduction of AI raises questions about the quality and value of jobs. The role of bank tellers evolved positively with the advent of ATMs, as they transitioned from simple cash handling to providing valuable financial advice. In 2016, Geoff Hinton, a prominent AI researcher, suggested that the world should cease training radiologists since AI was surpassing human capabilities in image analysis. Yet, a decade later, demand for radiologists in the U.S. has reached record levels. AI has enhanced the profession’s value, allowing radiologists to treat more patients while still meeting the human desire for personal interaction in healthcare.
Concerns about inequality also arise with the rise of AI. Initially, it was believed that access to AI would reduce earning disparities by enabling everyone to utilize advanced information processing and communication tools. However, research indicates that highly skilled individuals are reaping the most benefits from AI assistance. The ability to act on AI-generated advice is a skill in itself. Studies involving chess players have shown that top-quality advice does little to bridge the gap between varying skill levels, as less experienced players often fail to follow effective guidance.
The most pressing risk is that AI may exacerbate existing inequalities, creating a divide between those who successfully leverage AI and those left behind. A segment of the workforce may benefit from AI, enhancing productivity while others might find themselves trapped in low-paying jobs with limited opportunities.
Throughout history, technological revolutions have generally improved wealth, health, and comfort, but they also pose challenges. The critical task ahead is ensuring that societies empower all workers to harness the advantages of AI, transforming them from subservient roles to leaders in a technology-driven world. As AI continues to evolve, the focus must remain on creating pathways for equitable access and opportunity for all workers.
