The Liberal Party is intensifying its efforts to retain the Farrer seat in an upcoming byelection scheduled for May 9, 2024. This strategic timing provides the party’s candidate with a full two months to campaign, a significant advantage according to party insiders. The Farrer seat, historically held by former leader Sussan Ley for over 25 years, is now seen as a crucial battleground for the Liberals.
Internal polling described to the Australian Financial Review indicates that if the byelection were held this weekend, the National Party could struggle to secure even 5 percent of the primary vote. The Nationals, whose former leader Tim Fischer once represented the seat, are expected to play a minor role, primarily focusing on directing preferences toward the Liberal candidate.
The Liberal Party plans to finalize its candidate selection within a week, while the Nationals will select theirs on Sunday from a pool of four contenders, including three men and one woman. The political landscape is further complicated by the presence of One Nation, which will conduct a three-way ballot this Saturday.
Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, who has maintained a continuous campaign since the last election, is positioned to be a significant contender. The Coalition has characterized Milthorpe as an “orange teal,” suggesting she is not aligned with the teal independent movement despite receiving substantial funding from Climate 200 in the previous election.
As the Labor Party remains undecided about contesting the seat, it has shown a tendency to refrain from competing in a region it has never held. This byelection will serve as a key indicator of the dynamics within Australia’s fractured centre-right political landscape and its response to the rising strength of the teal independents.
Sources familiar with the internal polling suggest that if the election were to occur now, One Nation and Milthorpe would likely secure the top two spots in the primary vote, necessitating preference exchanges to clinch the seat. The Liberals and Nationals are expected to preferentially support each other, which could be pivotal in countering the influence of One Nation.
Should the Liberals fail to secure a top-two finish, the seat would potentially fall to either Milthorpe or One Nation, further contributing to the trend of historically solid Liberal electorates transitioning to other parties. Esteemed former Liberal strongholds such as Kooyong and Wentworth, once represented by prime ministers, have recently succumbed to teal candidates, including those who held seats for decades.
The stakes for the Liberal Party are high. A loss in Farrer would present an early challenge for the leadership of Angus Taylor. He acknowledged the difficulties ahead, stating, “This is a big mountain to climb. We’ve got a sitting member who has left at short notice and that’s never something that’s popular with the local electors.”
As the byelection approaches, the outcome will be closely monitored, reflecting broader trends in Australian politics and the shifting allegiances of voters in key constituencies.
