The military in Myanmar is increasing its operations across the country as it prepares for elections scheduled to begin on February 7, 2024. These elections, organized by the ruling junta, are widely criticized as a “sham” and an attempt to legitimize the military’s rule following years of civil conflict and international isolation. The military’s recent offensive aims to reclaim territory lost to pro-democracy forces since the coup in February 2021.
The first phase of the elections is part of a multi-stage process that will extend into late January. Analysts have raised concerns about the credibility of the elections, particularly because major opposition parties, such as the National League for Democracy led by jailed Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, are excluded from participation. Ongoing violence, including airstrikes on civilian areas, further casts doubt on the legitimacy of the electoral process.
In recent months, the military has regained ground, largely due to a forced conscription law enacted in February 2024. This law has reportedly enabled the military to recruit an estimated 80,000 new troops, alleviating chronic personnel shortages that had hampered its operations. According to state-aligned media, these new recruits are bolstering the military’s ability to hold territory and mount offensives against opposition forces.
Morgan Michaels, a conflict analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that “the military is regaining momentum and retaking strategically important areas.” He emphasized that the junta is likely to build on these military gains following the elections, which are seen as a means to enhance its standing in the international community.
The military’s resurgence has been supported by advanced weaponry supplied by Russia and China, including helicopters and fighter jets. This military hardware has allowed the junta to strike opposition positions with diminished resistance. Adam Simpson, a professor of international studies at the University of Adelaide, highlighted that the military’s improved capabilities have significantly impacted its ongoing conflict with ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defence Force, aligned with the shadow National Unity Government.
Despite these military advancements, the junta faced a significant setback in October 2023, when the Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic militias, launched a major offensive that captured towns and key supply routes along the border with China. Since then, China has taken a more active role in mediating the conflict, pressuring some of these groups to withdraw from captured territories and return control to the military.
Fighting continues in various regions of the country. In western Rakhine state, the Arakan Army now dominates much of the region, including the entire border with Bangladesh. This area is strategically crucial for infrastructure projects supported by China.
As the situation develops, the international community remains watchful of the implications of these elections and the military’s ongoing operations. The outcomes may influence not only the internal dynamics of Myanmar but also its diplomatic relations, particularly with neighboring countries.
