The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to transform the traditional understanding of the “group of death,” a term used to describe the most competitive group in the tournament. With an expansion to 48 teams and a new knockout qualification structure, the competitive landscape is shifting, potentially rendering the idea of a particularly lethal group obsolete.
Historically, the term “group of death” gained traction in the lead-up to the 1986 World Cup in Mexico. Journalist Alan Franks used the phrase in a column for the Times of London to describe a challenging group featuring Scotland. His commentary marked the beginning of a trend where journalists sought to label the most difficult group in the tournament with dramatic flair. Over the years, various groups have been dubbed the “group of death,” reflecting the competitive nature of the teams involved.
As the World Cup has evolved, so too has the definition of a challenging group. Between 1986 and 2014, the term became increasingly popular, with teams such as England, Argentina, and Brazil frequently labeled as part of a “group of death.” However, the 2026 tournament poses a different scenario.
The expansion to 48 teams means that the average quality of each group is likely to decrease. For instance, the potential Group I, which could include France, Norway, and Senegal, would have an average Elo rating of 1865.5, ranking it as the 32nd toughest group in World Cup history. This rating is indicative of the diminishing competitiveness of groups in the expanded format.
To understand the historical context, the toughest groups in World Cup history predominantly come from tournaments held before 1980. Using the World Football Elo Ratings, it is evident that the average Elo rating of the most challenging groups from 1954 to 1978 was significantly higher than that of recent tournaments. The average rating during that period was 1923.43, compared to 1883.25 in later tournaments.
The decrease in competitiveness can be attributed to the increase in the number of teams participating in the tournament. The World Cup started with just 13 teams in 1930 and gradually expanded to 32 teams by 1998. As a result, the quality of the “group of death” has declined, with fewer elite teams in each group.
Looking forward to the 2026 tournament, the structure allows for three teams from each of the 12 groups to advance to the knockout round. This change further reduces the stakes, making a traditional “group of death” less relevant. With the possibility of multiple teams advancing, the competitive tension that once defined these groups is diminished.
The upcoming World Cup will feature groups that may lack the intensity of past tournaments, with several groups projected to be among the weakest in history. For example, Group G, likely to include Belgium and other lower-ranked teams, may rank as one of the weakest groups in World Cup history.
As the tournament approaches, the concept of the “group of death” may need rebranding. With the competitive landscape shifting dramatically, fans and analysts alike must adapt to a new reality. The focus may shift from identifying a singularly difficult group to understanding the dynamics of a more evenly matched field.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, promises to be a historic event, but it will also challenge long-held perceptions about competition in football. As the tournament unfolds, the evolution of the “group of death” will serve as a reminder of the sport’s ongoing transformation.
