The NFL’s Week 14 produced a whirlwind of action, with teams facing pivotal moments as the season progresses. Notably, the **Kansas City Chiefs** experienced a significant setback in their playoff aspirations, while the **Jacksonville Jaguars** emerged as a serious contender in the AFC.
The Chiefs suffered a disheartening loss, with **Patrick Mahomes** delivering what many analysts are calling the worst performance of his career. The statistics are telling: a completion percentage of just **42.4%**, an expected points added (EPA) per dropback of **minus-0.54**, and a passer rating of **19.8**. This performance marked a stark contrast to Mahomes’ usual dominance and raised concerns about the team’s ability to secure a playoff spot. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Chiefs now have only a **16.4%** chance of making the playoffs, a dramatic drop from their previous seasons of consistent success.
To understand the challenges facing the Chiefs, it is essential to analyze their offensive strategy. The team’s reliance on a pass-heavy approach has become problematic. Historically, **Andy Reid**’s coaching style has favored passing, but the Chiefs now find themselves in a position where a balanced offensive game is crucial. The Chiefs have consistently ranked among the highest in pass rate over expectation, but their running game has faltered. The 2025 season has seen the Chiefs achieve the lowest explosive rush rate on running back carries since **2000**, at just **2.6%**. This lack of a formidable running game has made the offense predictable and easier for defenses to manage.
It is also vital to acknowledge the Chiefs’ struggles in the wide receiver department. The team has not drafted effectively in recent years, leaving them with a talent-deficient roster. While they have made investments in young receivers such as **Skyy Moore** and **Rashee Rice**, the overall depth and skill set of their receiving corps remain lacking, particularly in terms of size and versatility. The absence of a true WR1 has stifled the passing game, making it increasingly difficult for Mahomes to execute his game plan effectively.
In contrast, the Jaguars have quietly established themselves as a force in the AFC South. Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars have gone **5-1**, with their only loss coming in a late-game collapse against the Texans. Their offensive success can be attributed to a midseason trade for **Jakobi Meyers**, who has provided much-needed consistency and has excelled in generating positive play outcomes. The Jaguars’ offense is currently ranked sixth in success rate and fifth in points per drive since Week 8, showcasing their ability to execute effectively under pressure.
**Trevor Lawrence**, the Jaguars’ quarterback, has also demonstrated marked improvement in recent games. Under the guidance of offensive coordinator **Liam Coen**, Lawrence has become more decisive and accurate, throwing more intermediate passes and avoiding unnecessary risks. This evolution in his game has been pivotal for Jacksonville, allowing them to capitalize on favorable matchups throughout their current winning streak.
Defensively, the Jaguars have utilized a deep rotation along their defensive line, which has allowed them to maintain a high pressure rate, ranking seventh in the league since Week 10. This defensive prowess, combined with their evolving offense, positions the Jaguars as a formidable contender in the upcoming playoffs.
Looking ahead, the Chiefs must address their offensive shortcomings if they hope to remain competitive in the league. Transitioning to a more balanced attack, investing in their running game, and diversifying their receiver options are crucial steps they need to consider. Meanwhile, the Jaguars continue to build momentum, with their sights set firmly on a deep playoff run.
As the season unfolds, the NFL landscape is shifting, and both teams represent contrasting narratives of struggle and resurgence. The Chiefs must regroup and recalibrate, while the Jaguars are keen to capitalize on their recent successes and challenge for a playoff spot in the competitive AFC.
