As the festive season unfolds, European football enters a brief respite, allowing teams to reflect on their performances so far this season. While most leagues pause, English and Italian clubs continue their campaigns, competing in both league matches and domestic cups. This period serves as an opportune moment to assess the current landscape of Europe’s top teams, particularly focusing on their recent form as we approach the new year.
A statistical analysis of the top teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues reveals interesting insights. The rankings are based on an “adjusted goal differential,” calculated using 30% goal differential and 70% expected goals (xG) differential from matches played in 11 vs. 11 scenarios. This assessment includes league play, domestic cups, and UEFA competitions, excluding some lesser tournaments like the Coupe de France.
Bayern Munich and Arsenal Dominate the Top Spots
Leading the pack is Bayern Munich, who, over the past two months, have played 13 matches, earning 32 points with an impressive average of 2.46 points per game. Their adjusted goal differential stands at +1.36. Despite a recent surprising draw against Mainz and a loss to Arsenal in the Champions League, Bayern is on course for a remarkable season, potentially surpassing their own record of 91 points set in the 2012-13 season. Star striker Harry Kane has been pivotal, contributing 29 goals and three assists, while the team looks forward to welcoming back injured players like Jamal Musiala.
Following closely is Arsenal, also with 32 points from 13 matches, averaging 2.46 points per game and an adjusted goal differential of +1.23. Despite some recent challenges, including dropping points in the Premier League, the Gunners have demonstrated their strength with significant victories, including a 4-1 triumph over Tottenham and a 3-1 win against Bayern. Their upcoming fixtures include key matches against Brighton and Liverpool.
Next in line is Manchester City, with 33 points from 14 matches and an adjusted goal differential of +1.09. The team has shown inconsistency in their defensive transition but rebounded strongly with a decisive away victory against Real Madrid, outscoring opponents 13-1 in their last five matches. City remains a formidable contender, just two points behind Arsenal in the Premier League.
Other Notable Teams in the Race
“The rise of teams like Juventus and Inter Milan highlights the competitive nature of this season.” – ESPN FC Analysis
In Serie A, Juventus has seen a resurgence under new manager Luciano Spalletti, accumulating 27 points from 13 matches, with an adjusted goal differential of +0.94. The team has lost only once in their last 11 matches, placing them fifth in the league and within striking distance of the Champions League spots.
Similarly, RB Leipzig has maintained a strong presence, emerging with 19 points from 10 matches and an adjusted goal differential of +0.94. The team has faced recent challenges, yet their dominant wins showcase their potential.
In France, Paris Saint-Germain continues to adapt under Luis Enrique, ranking sixth with 23 points from 11 matches. Although trailing in Ligue 1, their ability to rotate a large squad of players indicates a long-term strategy.
As the season progresses, the competition among these elite teams is fierce. With critical matches approaching, including high-stakes encounters in the Champions League and domestic cups, the landscape of European football could shift dramatically in the coming weeks. The upcoming fixtures will be crucial for teams aiming to solidify their positions and capitalize on their current form as they head into the new year.
