As the NHL season progresses, teams are beginning to face the reality of their playoff aspirations. Traditionally, the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and the early weeks of December serve as crucial indicators of a team’s trajectory. This year, several teams that entered the 2025-26 season with high expectations are now grappling with significantly diminished playoff odds.
This analysis focuses on eight teams that started the season with promising playoff chances but now find themselves at risk of missing the postseason. The implications of these struggles are substantial, impacting not only the teams themselves but also the dynamics of the league as a whole.
Florida Panthers Struggling with Injuries
The Florida Panthers, the two-time defending champions, began the season with an impressive 87% chance of making the playoffs, according to Elo rating forecasts. However, their current playoff probability has dropped to 53%. Key players, including Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, have yet to play this season due to injuries. Although Tkachuk is skating again and may return soon, Barkov is expected to be out until at least the playoffs. Compounding their challenges, other core players such as Sam Reinhart and Sergei Bobrovsky are struggling to replicate last season’s performance.
The Panthers have historically improved as the season progresses, and while there is still time to turn things around, the prospect of missing the playoffs looms large. If they do not qualify, they would become the first defending champion to miss the postseason since the 2015 Los Angeles Kings. Their main competitor for playoff positioning is the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose playoff fate is inversely correlated with Florida’s chances.
Winnipeg Jets and the President’s Trophy Curse
Following a preseason playoff probability of 84%, the Winnipeg Jets now find their chances at 56%. After a promising start, the team faced a significant setback when reigning league MVP Connor Hellebuyck was placed on injured reserve due to a knee injury. During his absence, Winnipeg managed only three wins in twelve games, leaving them tied for the worst record in December. Although Hellebuyck has returned, the Jets’ offensive struggles have persisted, with their scoring ranking falling from third last season to sixteenth this year.
Winnipeg’s primary rival for a playoff spot is the Utah Mammoth, a team that has emerged as a formidable opponent in the Central Division. The Jets’ playoff chances decrease significantly when Utah qualifies, illustrating the tight race for postseason slots.
Toronto Maple Leafs in a Tight Spot
The Toronto Maple Leafs entered the season with a 74% chance of making the playoffs, but their current odds stand at 51%. Following the departure of Mitch Marner, the team’s scoring has improved slightly, averaging 3.30 goals per game compared to 3.26 last season. However, defensive issues have plagued the Leafs, as they have fallen from eighth to nineteenth in goals allowed per game.
With several players sidelined, including key defensive assets, Toronto’s playoff hopes hinge on their ability to regain health and consistency. Their nemesis in this struggle is the Florida Panthers. The odds of Toronto making the playoffs diminish if Florida also qualifies, reflecting the intense competition in the wild-card race.
St. Louis Blues’ Disappointing Start
The St. Louis Blues are currently facing a dire situation, with their preseason playoff chances of 66% plummeting to just 15%. Despite their efforts to regain form with brief winning streaks, the team has struggled significantly, ranking last in goals per game this month. Injuries, including that of Jordan Kyrou, have compounded their challenges.
With the dominant Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars likely to occupy the top spots in the Central Division, St. Louis is left battling for wild-card spots, primarily against the Winnipeg Jets.
New York Rangers and Historical Struggles
The New York Rangers began the season with a 62% chance of making the playoffs but currently sit at 42%. Following a coaching change to Mike Sullivan, the team aimed to rebound from last season’s disappointing finish. Goaltending has improved, but scoring remains a major concern, with the Rangers ranking just twenty-ninth in goals per game.
As the Rangers navigate the playoff race, their chief competitor is the New Jersey Devils. The rivalry intensifies the stakes, as both teams are vying for the same playoff positions.
Ottawa Senators’ Hopes Dwindling
The Ottawa Senators experienced a promising season last year, but their playoff chances have declined from 54% to 36%. Injuries have hindered the team, particularly with Brady Tkachuk sidelined after hand surgery. The Senators have also struggled with goaltending, currently holding the worst save percentage in the league.
Their primary rival for a playoff spot is the Detroit Red Wings, who are also attempting to end their own playoff drought. The competition between the two teams could determine which one secures a postseason berth.
Vancouver Canucks and Trade Rumors
The Vancouver Canucks began the season with a modest 48% chance of making the playoffs, but that has now dropped to a mere 7%. Despite high expectations for their young talent, the team’s performance has spiraled since early November, leading to speculation about potential trades, including the recent deal that sent Quinn Hughes to the Minnesota Wild.
Facing a bleak outlook, the Canucks find themselves in a precarious position, with little hope for a playoff push this season.
New Jersey Devils’ Uncertain Future
With preseason playoff odds of 45%, the New Jersey Devils now sit at 40%. The team has struggled with injuries, particularly to star player Jack Hughes, who has missed significant time this season. As they navigate a difficult season, their playoff chances are closely tied to the performance of the New York Rangers, making this rivalry even more critical.
As December unfolds, the playoff picture continues to crystallize. For these teams, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining their postseason fates.
