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Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly threatening job security across various sectors, particularly impacting ticket sellers and receptionists. A recent report from Deloitte Access Economics identifies these roles as among the most susceptible to automation. Following closely are positions such as keyboard operators, call centre workers, and telemarketers, as AI continues to evolve and take over tasks that require minimal judgement and interpersonal skills.
The report details that a total of 37 occupations are at risk, including 24 clerical and administrative roles, seven sales positions, and three management roles. In the United States, early evidence indicates that companies adopting AI technologies have already begun to reduce junior-level positions, leading to a decline in employment for early-career workers in roles heavily influenced by AI.
Deloitte’s findings indicate that “junior employment levels have declined within firms that have been bigger adopters of AI compared to those where AI is playing less of a role.” The report also highlights that even after accounting for firm characteristics, early-career roles within AI-exposed occupations are facing significant challenges.
Employment Outlook and Economic Challenges for Australia
In Australia, the employment landscape is also shifting. Deloitte forecasts a weakening in hiring for the upcoming year, attributing this to both a slowdown in government hiring and inflationary pressures that may limit the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) capacity to lower interest rates. Deloitte Access Economics partner, David Rumbens, noted that employment growth in the six months ending on October 31, 2023, had nearly halved, dropping to 81,500 new positions from 151,300 in the preceding six months.
Rising unemployment and persistent inflation create additional hurdles for the RBA, which has struggled to maintain price levels within its 2 to 3 percent target range. “With inflation once again outside of the target range, the macroeconomic landing is looking a little harder than first thought,” Rumbens stated.
Concerns about the RBA’s responsiveness to these challenges have been voiced by former officials. John Simon, former head of economic research at the RBA, expressed worries that the Bank might delay necessary actions in response to rising unemployment while still focusing on inflation. In an opinion piece for the Australian Financial Review, he remarked, “The playbook is the same. Move slowly. Extend the horizon. Trust that circumstances will co-operate.”
Adding to the scepticism, Stephen Koukoulas, a former economics adviser to ex-Prime Minister Julia Gillard, cautioned that the RBA has a history of inaction during critical economic shifts. He warned that the Bank’s reluctance to act pre-emptively could adversely affect economic growth, employment, and productivity levels.
Current Economic Conditions and Future Projections
The RBA adjusted its forecasts in early November, projecting that unemployment would peak at 4.4 percent until December 2027. This adjustment came after a previous forecast in August suggested a jobless rate of 4.3 percent for at least the subsequent two years. Notably, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent in October, down from a four-year high of 4.5 percent.
Headline inflation, however, remains a concern. In the year leading up to September, inflation was recorded at 3.2 percent, exceeding the RBA’s target range. On Melbourne Cup day, RBA Governor Michele Bullock expressed surprise at the rising inflation, as the Bank had decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6 percent for the second consecutive meeting.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release comprehensive monthly inflation data for October, which will replace the long-standing quarterly series. The Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest home lender, anticipates a 3.6 percent annual inflation rate, slightly above the RBA’s forecast of 3.3 percent for the year ending in December.
Senior economist Trent Saunders indicated that the acceleration of inflation would likely prevent the RBA from reducing interest rates soon. He commented, “With inflation expected to still sit in the top half of the target band by the end of 2026, we expect the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold over the course of the year.”
As the impact of AI continues to unfold and economic pressures mount, both employees and policymakers face a challenging landscape ahead.
