Apple is set to reclaim its position as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer for the first time in over a decade, largely driven by a surge in iPhone sales. This shift comes as the company experiences a resurgence in China, following recent support from the Chinese government. The anticipated change represents a significant challenge for Samsung Electronics, which faces increasing competition from both Motorola in the budget segment and Apple in the premium market.
The latest data from Counterpoint Research indicates that the boost in demand is largely attributed to the recent iPhone lineup, alongside a wave of consumers upgrading devices originally purchased during the COVID-19 lockdowns. The iPhone 17 series, launched in September, has demonstrated strong performance across multiple regions, including Australia, the United States, and China.
Growing Sales and Market Share
In China, Apple’s extensive marketing initiatives have significantly accelerated its momentum, resulting in a double-digit year-over-year increase in sales. This growth is expected to propel Apple past Samsung in terms of global market share. Counterpoint anticipates that iPhone shipments will rise by 10% in 2025, which is more than double Samsung’s projected growth of 4.6%. The overall smartphone market is forecasted to expand by 3.3%, with Apple securing an estimated 19.4% share—marking its first return to the top spot since 2011.
“The key driver behind this upgraded outlook is the smartphone replacement cycle reaching its tipping point,” explained Yang Wang, an analyst at Counterpoint Research. “Consumers who bought phones during the COVID-19 boom are now ready to upgrade. Additionally, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, and many of these users are likely to transition to new models.”
Future Prospects for Apple
Looking ahead, Wang predicts that Apple will not only maintain its lead but also broaden it. The company is expected to introduce a foldable iPhone and a lower-cost version of the iPhone 17, known as the iPhone 17e, both slated for 2026. A major design overhaul is planned for 2027, as previously reported by Bloomberg. Given the current trends, Counterpoint forecasts that Apple will retain its leading position through 2029.
Apple recently announced that its sales are already surpassing expectations, with holiday-quarter revenue projected to approach a record US$140 billion. This anticipated growth underscores the company’s robust market strategy and the impact of consumer behavior as they look to upgrade their devices in the coming years.
