Scientists at NASA have put forward a controversial plan to prevent a potential collision between a large asteroid, designated YR4, and the moon. The proposal involves utilizing nuclear devices to disrupt the asteroid, which was first discovered in December 2024. The study detailing this approach was recently shared on the arXiv preprint server and has not yet undergone peer review.
The asteroid YR4 has raised alarm due to its predicted trajectory, posing a possible impact on Earth on December 23, 2032. Initially, the threat of YR4 striking our planet was assessed with a likelihood of 0.00081 percent, but the chances of it impacting the moon have been increased to over 4 percent. If YR4 were to hit the moon, the resulting debris could pose significant risks to Earth-orbiting satellites and the ongoing Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the lunar surface.
To avert this potential catastrophe, researchers suggest a “kinetic disruption mission.” This would involve launching two 100-kiloton nuclear devices designed to navigate autonomously to YR4, which measures over 91 meters in length. The proposed detonation would yield an explosive force estimated to be five to eight times greater than the bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima during World War II.
In addition to the primary device, a second nuclear device would be kept on standby, ready for detonation if necessary. Should the first device successfully deflect YR4, the second could be safely disposed of in deep space. The researchers noted, “Otherwise, it can be safely disposed of by detonating it in deep space after the asteroid is successfully deflected by the first one.”
While the nuclear option offers a direct response to the threat, the team also considered a deflection mission similar to NASA’s successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) from 2022. This previous mission demonstrated the feasibility of altering an asteroid’s trajectory by striking it with a spacecraft. However, the scientists concluded that there would not be adequate time for a reconnaissance mission to gather critical data about YR4 before any intervention could occur.
A reconnaissance mission could not be launched until 2028, leaving only three years to execute an effective interception. In contrast, the nuclear disruption strategy could allow for a preparation window of five to seven years, with potential launches occurring between 2029 and late 2031.
Although the researchers emphasized that the chances of YR4 impacting the moon remain slim, the nuclear alternative represents a unique approach to addressing the growing concern of hazardous near-Earth objects. This innovative strategy may pave the way for future methods of planetary defense.
This article first appeared in the New York Post and has been republished with permission.
