UPDATE: Australia’s beef production is on track to hit a staggering 2.9 million metric tonnes in 2025, marking an 11 percent increase from 2024 and setting new records. This revelation comes from a just-released report by agribusiness banking leader Rabobank and highlights significant developments in both production and export markets.
The report, part of Rabobank’s Q4 2025 Global Beef Quarterly, indicates that robust cattle slaughter rates and high carcass weights are driving this unprecedented growth. Beef exports are also soaring, with a remarkable 15 percent increase in the first ten months of 2025, totaling 1.3 million metric tonnes shipped weight.
According to Angus Gidley-Baird, Rabobank’s senior animal proteins analyst, the United States remains the dominant export market for Australian beef, accounting for 29 percent of total exports. He noted, “While the majority (96 percent) of exports to the United States are grass-fed beef, grain-fed beef exports have surged by 20 percent to 14,000 metric tonnes.”
Moreover, exports to China have skyrocketed, increasing by 44 percent in the same period, with grain-fed beef exports to China rising by an astonishing 58 percent. This surge is attributed to reduced volumes of U.S. beef entering the Chinese market.
The factors driving these trends are largely seasonal, according to Gidley-Baird. “Australia’s cattle prices are heavily influenced by seasonal conditions and producer sentiment,” he explained. After experiencing drier conditions earlier this autumn, cattle prices saw a dip but rebounded with improved rainfall by late October. This positive trend is expected to persist into 2026.
On a global scale, beef production is declining. The Rabobank report forecasts a 0.8 percent contraction in global beef production for 2025, contrasting sharply with Australia’s growth. Key producers like New Zealand and the United States are expected to see significant drops in volume, with the U.S. facing a reduction of nearly 500,000 metric tonnes.
As Australia capitalizes on its production capabilities, international dynamics are also shifting. Gidley-Baird cautioned that trade policies from the U.S. administration could affect the beef market landscape. Recent decisions to adjust tariffs on beef imports from Argentina and Brazil may increase competitive pressures on Australian exports, despite the strong demand in the U.S. market.
The report indicates that the trends observed now will likely shape the beef market landscape for the foreseeable future. As producers adapt to changing conditions, the focus will remain on maximizing exports while navigating international trade complexities.
Stay tuned for further updates as these developments unfold, impacting not just the Australian beef market but also global trade dynamics.
