China is set to implement a value-added tax on contraceptives, including condoms, for the first time in over three decades. Starting from January 1, 2024, these products will be subject to a 13 percent tax, a significant shift in policy as the country grapples with declining birth rates. This decision comes as part of Beijing’s broader strategy to encourage families to have more children following decades of strict population control measures.
The new tax is outlined in the latest value-added tax law, which specifies that “contraceptive drugs and products” will no longer be tax-exempt. Despite limited coverage in state-run media, the announcement has sparked discussions on social media platforms, with many users humorously noting that raising a child is significantly more expensive than purchasing condoms, even with the new tax.
Concerns have been raised by experts regarding potential repercussions of this tax, particularly the risk of increased unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. The previous one-child policy, which was enforced from approximately 1980 until 2015, imposed severe penalties for violations, including substantial fines and in some instances, forced abortions. This policy has since evolved, shifting to a two-child limit in 2015 and then a three-child policy in 2021 as China’s population began to decline.
In 2024, approximately 9.5 million babies were born in China, a decrease from the 14.7 million births in 2019, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. This decline occurred despite a temporary increase in births attributed to the cultural significance of the Year of the Dragon, according to Chinese astrology. As birth rates fall and deaths outpace births, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
Experts indicate that the impact of the new tax on fertility rates may be minimal. Qian Cai, director of the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia, stated, “For couples who do not want children or do not want additional children, a 13 percent tax on contraceptives is unlikely to influence their reproductive decisions, especially when weighed against the far higher costs of raising a child.”
On the other hand, Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, views the tax as a logical progression in policy. “They used to control the population, but now they are encouraging people to have more babies; it is a return to normal methods to make these products ordinary commodities,” he remarked.
Historically, the responsibility for contraception has predominantly fallen on women in China. Research by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in 2022 indicated that only 9 percent of couples used condoms, while 44.2 percent opted for intrauterine devices and 30.5 percent chose female sterilization. With a long history of government intervention in personal choices regarding childbearing, some women have expressed frustration over this new tax.
“It’s a disciplinary tactic, a management of women’s bodies and my sexual desire,” said Zou Xuan, a 32-year-old teacher in Jiangxi province.
Estimates regarding annual condom consumption in China vary, but a report from IndexBox noted that approximately 5.4 billion condoms were consumed in 2020, marking the eleventh consecutive year of growth. Experts warn that increased costs may hinder access to contraceptives for economically disadvantaged populations, potentially leading to a rise in unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections.
Cai expressed concern that such outcomes could lead to more abortions and heightened healthcare costs. China’s abortion rates are among the highest globally, with between 9 million and 10 million procedures performed annually from 2014 to 2021, according to the National Health Commission. Although the government ceased reporting abortion statistics in 2022, experts believe the actual numbers may be even higher due to underground practices.
In addition to rising abortion rates, sexually transmitted infections have also been increasing, with over 100,000 cases of gonorrhea and 670,000 cases of syphilis reported in 2024. The number of individuals living with AIDS and HIV has also surged, particularly among older demographics, reaching approximately 1.4 million in the same year.
As China navigates the complexities of its demographic challenges, the introduction of this tax reflects the ongoing tension between population control measures and the push for increased fertility. The implications of these policies will continue to unfold in the coming years, influencing both public health and societal attitudes toward family planning.
