Elbridge Colby, appointed by former US President Donald Trump as the undersecretary of defence for policy, is at the forefront of a critical review of the AUKUS submarine agreement with Australia. This deal, initially established to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, faces scrutiny from Colby, a figure known for his unconventional approach to foreign policy.
Born into an elite American family, Colby’s journey into foreign affairs began early. His grandfather was a director of the CIA, and he spent part of his childhood in Tokyo, where his father worked for a US investment bank. Colby attended Harvard University, where he majored in history and political and moral theory, shaping his views on international relations. He has often expressed a degree of skepticism towards the traditional national security community, suggesting that it lacks a strong intellectual foundation.
Colby’s perspective as a self-identified “maverick” is evident in his approach to foreign affairs. He believes that the primary threat to the United States comes from the Chinese Communist Party. In his 2021 book, The Strategy of Denial, Colby outlines the need for the US to act as an “external cornerstone balancer” to prevent China from achieving regional hegemony. He advocates for a strategy focused on denying China its objectives rather than attempting to militarily dominate it.
In the context of AUKUS, Colby is pushing Australia and Japan to clarify their commitments in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan. He views Taiwan as a critical flashpoint, with US intelligence suggesting China may attempt to assert control by 2027, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. The recent visit of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to China underscores the delicate balance Australia must maintain in its relationship with both superpowers.
Colby’s demands are significant as they influence Australia’s future stance in the region, particularly regarding the use of nuclear-powered submarines acquired through AUKUS. Despite Albanese’s recent diplomatic efforts, Colby’s review introduces complexities into the Australia-China dynamic, highlighting the ongoing tensions surrounding regional security.
This scrutiny has not come without criticism. Colby has been described as “pissing off just about everyone” within the US administration, indicating potential friction between the Department of Defense and the State Department. The latter was reportedly unaware of the AUKUS review, suggesting a disconnect in communication regarding US foreign policy initiatives.
Colby’s stance on global conflicts, particularly his recent recommendation to limit arms supplies to Ukraine, has also sparked controversy. His memo, which argued that additional military support could deplete US stockpiles, was ultimately overruled by Trump, who pledged new military assistance to Kyiv. Observers view this incident as an indication of Colby’s tendency to challenge established protocols, which some believe may have diminished his standing within the administration.
As the AUKUS review progresses, Colby’s role remains pivotal. Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd expressed confidence in working with Colby, emphasizing their long-standing relationship. Former Australian Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos noted Colby’s significant experience in defence strategy, suggesting that he is not merely an academic but an influential figure in shaping current defence priorities.
Colby’s approach highlights the urgency of addressing the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific. His relationship with allies, particularly Australia and Japan, is crucial to building a collective defence strategy that can effectively counter Chinese ambitions in the region.
With tensions escalating in East Asia, Colby’s maverick mindset may be both a strength and a vulnerability. As he continues to navigate the complexities of US foreign policy, the outcomes of his initiatives will undoubtedly shape the future of international relations in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
