A significant divide among European leaders regarding climate change has hindered efforts to establish new carbon emission targets just before a crucial United Nations summit. The failure to reach consensus has drawn attention to the economic concerns that have stalled commitments to cut emissions by 2035.
French President Emmanuel Macron has faced criticism for the delays, as leaders from Italy and Poland have also expressed reservations about implementing deeper cuts in light of low economic growth and ongoing pressures from the war in Ukraine. The inability to agree on a formal target threatens to undermine the European Union’s standing at the upcoming UN gathering in New York and the subsequent climate summit in Brazil in November.
Instead of a binding commitment, EU ministers released a non-binding “statement of intent,” aiming to reduce emissions by between 66.25 percent and 72.5 percent by 2035. Wopke Hoekstra, the EU climate commissioner, acknowledged that achieving consensus requires time. He emphasized the importance of collaborative discussions even when urgency is paramount.
The EU’s intended target aligns closely with the Australian goal announced recently by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who pledged to cut emissions by 62 percent to 70 percent. However, the two targets are not directly comparable, as the EU’s aims are based on 1990 levels, while Australia’s baseline is set at 2005.
Concerns have been raised regarding the adequacy of the EU’s proposals. Bill Hare, founder of Climate Analytics and a noted climate scientist, described the EU’s stance as a “major embarrassment,” asserting that a target of over 77 percent reduction is necessary to align with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Hare stated, “The difference between the proposal on the table and what’s needed for 1.5 degrees Celsius is not just a numerical gap; it’s a crucial test of the EU’s political will and its climate credibility.”
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has cautioned against pursuing emission cuts that may jeopardize industry, particularly as European nations focus on defense spending and manufacturing recovery. She remarked, “Before anything else, we must fight the desertification of European industry,” highlighting the delicate balance between environmental goals and economic stability.
Underlying the delay in setting the 2035 target is a broader discussion about the EU’s long-term goal of achieving a 90 percent reduction in emissions by 2040. EU ministers are expected to reconvene in October to formalize a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) ahead of the climate summit in Brazil. In parallel, China is anticipated to announce its NDC next week.
Macron has previously indicated that the 2040 target must align with the EU’s economic competitiveness, suggesting that member states take the necessary time to reach a consensus. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also voiced concerns about the rapid pace of the EU’s carbon emissions plans, stating, “If we go bankrupt, no one will care about the world’s environment anymore.”
Debate over the EU’s mandate for electric vehicles continues, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticizing regulations aimed at phasing out fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035. He called for increased regulatory flexibility during a recent speech at the Munich motor show.
While nations like Spain and Denmark support more aggressive climate action, they are met with resistance from the Czech Republic and larger economies within the union. The World Wildlife Fund has highlighted the severe impacts of recent heatwaves in Europe, attributing 16,500 deaths and economic losses of €43 billion (approximately $77 billion) to climate-related issues, underscoring the urgent need for ambitious emissions targets.
Shirley Matheson of the WWF remarked, “With so many countries looking to Europe to decide on their own NDCs, this was a missed opportunity for the EU to raise the bar and inspire others to follow.”
As the November summit approaches, the ramifications of this intra-European division will likely resonate beyond the continent, influencing global climate strategies and commitments.
