More than one million people in Western Australia are expected to live with musculoskeletal conditions by the year 2045, with women facing the most significant impact. Research conducted by Monash University, in collaboration with Curtin University, utilized data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare to forecast the future burden of conditions such as arthritis, back problems, and osteoporosis in the state.
The findings urge the Western Australian Government to prioritize these painful disorders. Researchers warn that the anticipated increase in patients will lead to long waiting lists for surgeries and consultations with medical specialists. The chronic nature of these disorders can result in disabilities, decreased participation in daily activities, and a diminished quality of life.
By 2045, the number of West Australians living with arthritis is projected to exceed 609,000, an increase of 177,000 from 2025. Those suffering from chronic back problems are expected to approach 600,000, adding 135,000 individuals to this statistic. Furthermore, osteoporosis cases are anticipated to rise to over 152,000, marking an increase of 52,000 from current figures.
Calls for Action and Funding
Andrew Briggs, a co-author of the study from Curtin University, highlighted the potential access issues that could arise as the number of patients grows over the next 20 years. He stated, “The rapid increase in cases will likely see demand exceed capacity, which will have implications for people in the public service, including outpatient clinics, waiting lists for surgeries, and consultations with specialist doctors like rheumatologists, where the wait lists are already quite long.” Currently, Western Australia is experiencing a shortfall of 35 rheumatologists, with only 31 specialists available as of 2023.
Briggs emphasized the need for increased funding from the state government and improved policies to better support patients with these chronic conditions. The expected rise in musculoskeletal disorders will also have significant financial implications for the health budget. Direct costs to the WA Government related to public hospital activities are forecast to escalate from $131 million in 2025 to $269 million by 2045. Overall, annual health expenditure for musculoskeletal diseases is projected to surpass $2.25 billion in 2045.
Investing in Research and Policy Change
Briggs advocated for a reallocation of resources towards primary care and prevention, stating, “If we are spending the lion’s share on hospital admissions, that might suggest we could reallocate some resourcing back to primary care and prevention.” He urged policymakers to evolve existing frameworks to include musculoskeletal health as a priority, as these conditions are often overlooked in favor of more life-threatening diseases.
Ilana Ackerman, deputy director of Monash University’s musculoskeletal health unit, echoed these concerns, calling for more investment in research. “The amount of money that’s going to research in this area is really low compared to what we see in other health conditions, so we really want to see more investment in research to deliver the best, effective care to people,” she stated.
As the population of Western Australia continues to grow, addressing the projected rise in musculoskeletal disorders will require immediate action and strategic planning from both healthcare providers and government entities. The time to prioritize and invest in this area of health is now, as the future burden on individuals and the healthcare system looms large.
