The leader of Canada’s opposition Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has successfully regained his seat in Parliament following a surprising defeat in April. Unofficial results from Elections Canada indicate that Poilievre won the by-election held in the Battle River-Crowfoot riding, located in Alberta, on September 11, 2023. His victory in this Conservative stronghold positions him to confront Prime Minister Mark Carney regarding the ongoing issue of U.S. tariffs when the House of Commons reconvenes on September 15, 2023.
Poilievre’s comeback is notable given his unexpected loss in the April federal election, where he lost the Ottawa-area seat he had held for 21 years. In contrast, Carney secured a minority government during that election, promising to take a firm stance against U.S. President Donald Trump. Since taking office in March, Carney’s approach has shifted, leading to criticisms from Poilievre, who stated, “Mark Carney has been failing. He’s failed, he’s backed down, he’s made concession after concession vis-a-vis the Americans.”
Despite Poilievre’s return, Carney is not viewed as being in immediate political jeopardy. The Liberal Party, which fell three seats short of a majority in April, is expected to maintain its grip on power with support from smaller parties during confidence votes. Polling data from Nanos Research indicates that the Liberals currently enjoy 44 percent popular support, while the Conservatives trail at 33 percent.
Carney’s moderation on U.S. relations has made it more challenging for Poilievre to establish clear differences between their policies. Pollster Nik Nanos, CEO of Nanos Research, commented, “Poilievre needs to articulate what he learned from the last federal election and how his government would be different than a Carney government.”
Earlier this year, the Conservatives appeared poised for a decisive victory over the Liberals, who were struggling in the polls under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. However, the political landscape shifted dramatically when Trudeau announced his intention to step down, coinciding with Trump’s aggressive tactics towards Canada, including threats of tariffs and annexation.
In the recent by-election, Poilievre garnered approximately 80 percent of the vote, according to Elections Canada, signaling strong support within his constituency. As he prepares to challenge Carney in Parliament, the stakes are high for both leaders in navigating the complexities of Canadian-U.S. relations and their respective party strategies moving forward.
